In a video released by the Kremlin on New Year’s Eve, President Vladimir Putin is seen chatting with soldiers, exhorting them to: We just fight, we just keep going. ”
“Of course, there is still a lot of work to be done.”
As winter sets in and the anniversary of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine looms next month, Putin has put an end to his previous efforts to shield his people from the pain of war and to prepare the Russian people and his own army for the long battle ahead. I am trying to do.
“He’s less relaxed and less optimistic than he used to be,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, a Russian analyst who studies Putin at the political analysis firm R.Politik. “You can feel a certain anxiety, a desire to mobilize all possible forces to achieve his goals.”
Putin, who has kept a low profile this week during Russia’s long holiday, made no statement about last weekend’s Ukrainian rocket attack in the city of Makyivka. As a result, a flurry of criticism from pro-war bloggers on social media was directed at the Russian commander and spared Putin himself. This is a pattern evident in months of failures by the Russian military.
The Russian Defense Ministry issued a statement on Tuesday saying the death toll from the strike had reached 89 servicemen, including the deputy commander of the regiment.Ukrainian officials said the toll was much higher. I’m here. Neither claim could be independently verified. The statement also said that the primary reason the site was targeted was the use of mobile phones by soldiers. This is a factor that Russian military bloggers have identified as a vulnerability.
A memorial service was held on Tuesday in the city of Samara, where many of Makivka’s victims are from, calling for revenge on Ukraine, according to videos and local media reports. The report did not mention any criticism of the officials responsible for the war.
Still, the unusually quick response by the Russian Ministry of Defense, which acknowledged the heavy casualties at Makievka the day after the attack and promised to provide “all necessary aid and assistance” to the families of the dead, meant that the Kremlin would be forced to take more action. I was showing that I was asking for it. More transparent at home than in the early months of the war.
That was in contrast to last April’s sinking of Moscow, the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. The Kremlin has never confirmed that it was hit by a Ukrainian missile, nor has it updated reports that one sailor died and 27 members of the crew’s family went missing.
For most of last year, Putin exuded an air of confidence and life in Russia went on as usual. His pact with the masses was simple: leave politics and fighting to us, and we will not suffer much from our justified “special military operations” in Ukraine.
It ended in September when a Ukrainian counterattack stunned the Kremlin and Putin ordered a conscription that hardline supporters of the war said had been long overdue. are redoubled efforts to attract
The new approach was glaringly demonstrated on Saturday when Putin broke with tradition and delivered a widely watched New Year’s Eve speech not at the Kremlin but at a military base, with people in military uniforms in the background.
Annual speeches are usually heavy on apolitical clichés. This is the New Year’s dinner table for millions of Russian families. This time, Putin offered the story of the West trying to destroy Russia. “The West lied about peace while preparing for an invasion,” he said. “They ironically use Ukraine and her people to undermine and divide Russia.”
This was the latest and perhaps the most striking example of Putin’s attempt to prepare the Russians for a long war.
US officials say the Kremlin is finally learning from its mistakes on the battlefield. Russia improved its defenses, pushed more soldiers to the front lines, put one general in charge of the war, and was able to organize a withdrawal from the Ukrainian city of Kherson in November with minimal casualties. .
Russian commanders are also openly curbing their ambitions. Russia’s Chief of General Staff, General Valery Gerasimov, said on Dec. 22 that Russia’s current focus was limited to trying to capture what remained of the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine.
“Triumphism is diminishing,” said Ruslan Reviev, a Russian military analyst in the Conflict Intelligence Team’s Open Source Analysis Group, in an interview. He said he was surprised at how quickly the Russian Ministry of Defense acknowledged the loss of the Makeovka, noting that it usually takes several days for the Ministry of Defense to acknowledge a large number of casualties.
Putin himself is trying to quickly stave off potential dissatisfaction with the war’s dire consequences, and is trying to mobilize Russians to more actively support the war. Rumors are circulating that he will be ordered to bring more bodies to the front.
Western officials estimate that more than 100,000 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded in the fighting, and Russia’s central bank said the country’s economy contracted by 3% in 2022.
But so far the suffering caused by the war in Russia has not led to widespread dissatisfaction. The economy is more resilient to Western sanctions than many expected, and Kremlin television his propaganda says Putin claims the invasion of Ukraine was a defensive war forced on Russia by the West. It was effective in convincing many Russians that there was.
Despite widespread outrage on social media over the death of a Russian soldier in Makyivka, there was little criticism of Putin himself about the incident in Russia and little mention of it on state television. Military bloggers say high death tolls could be minimized if commanders followed basic precautions such as dispersing recently arrived soldiers to safer locations instead of clustering them near munitions. He said it might have been possible.
At a memorial service in Samara, about 100 participants waved Russian flags and coordinated the collection of supplies for survivors, according to videos and local media reports. Ukraine and the West were the targets of their wrath, not their own leaders.
“The entire West has shut down the forces that oppose us in order to destroy us,” said Ekaterina, head of the Humanitarian Fund for Soldiers and wife of a Russian general fighting in Ukraine. Korotovkina spoke to the Samara rally, reflecting the main theme of state propaganda. .
On social media, the initial call by pre-war Russian commentators to accuse the official responsible for Makyewka’s loss of treason was a more cautious critique of local military decisions and a desire to avoid future disasters. No one seemed to direct criticism at Putin, and veiled attacks were often directed at his senior officials.
Putin’s instinct to absolve himself of responsibility was evident in a Monday evening post by influential Russian military blogger Anastasia Kashevalova, who hails from the Samara region. “Yes, Vladimir Vladimirovich, we love this country,” she wrote, referring to Putin. “I love Russia so much that I hate certain people in your entourage.”
But some analysts believe a flood of protests is likely. Russian political scientist Mikhail Vinogradov points out that the public backlash against the military casualties of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s “was not immediate, not the first year of the war.”
The fact that a public backlash against Putin within Russia has yet to materialize suggests that either the political system is “maximally stable” or that feelings of frustration are building up, “someday the energy explosion.”
“Both hypotheses have a right to exist,” he said.
War isn’t the only thing that could bring political instability to the Kremlin this year. Russia’s next presidential election is scheduled for his March 2024. While Putin will never face an actual election race, the date is big as it is widely viewed by analysts and the Russian elite as a moment to reveal who the 70-year-old Putin will nominate. It’s getting closer. I would like to eventually become his successor.
Analyst Stanovaya said Mr Putin is very likely to run again. A constitutional amendment made in 2020 will allow Mr Putin to remain in power until his 2036. The influence of war and the “pragmatists” who try to avoid it will only increase in the next year.
“I think 2023 will be a somewhat decisive time to decide which way the balance will tilt,” Stanovaya said. “We are kind of at a dangerous line.”
