Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ December Sleepwalk is a Touch of Deja View

The Edmonton Oilers went 13-10-0 into November (7-7-0), best described as a minor disappointment based on expectations.

A much easier schedule of opponents awaited the club in December, with fans believing this gave Edmonton a chance to separate from the pack. Things started off well and the team rode his 3-1-0 homestand early on and he achieved a 5-4-1 record. His stumble with the Canucks in Vancouver just before Christmas raised doubts, and just a solid result (he’s 2-1-0 in his last three games) puts the team at the top of his list of available points in a month. We were able to secure just over 50% of him.

The team’s overall performance improved in December, but it wasn’t enough to keep Edmonton out of the perilous area around the Western Conference’s final playoff spots. The Pacific Division-leading Vegas Golden Knights pull away from the pack, leaving the Oilers, Los Angeles Kings, Calgary Flames and Seattle Kraken to battle for the two or he three spots available at the end of the season.

Connor McDavid went 14-17-31 (overall) in 15 games, beating his opponent 13-11 (54%) 5-5.

Leon Draisaitl (6-15-21 in 13 games), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (8-8-16 in 13 games) and Zach Hyman (6-8-14 in 12 games) are all in one game. Scored at least 1 point per. state.

On defense, Tyson Barry had a very big month. His 5-for-5 on-ice goal share (10-6, 63%) and his 12 power plays his assists made him an impact player in his December.

In goal, Stuart Skinner emerged as the number one goaltender despite his youth and inexperience. 929 save percentage and his 5-4-1 record all month long were key to the team’s success.

Overall, it was a month of improving numbers, but one negative event in one particular game left us with a missed opportunity. His December record at the end overshadowed real progress in several key areas.

December

The Oilers’ coaching staff, led by head coach Jay Woodcroft, realized a few things during the month. (see November total here).

A combination of goal shares (both overall and 5-on-5) and significantly improved goaltending numbers reflect progress on both ends of the ice. Comparing November’s all-strength per-60 goal (3.21) with his December total (3.97) provides evidence of that.

The Oilers dominated every category this month.

2022-23 season (so far)

The Oilers are highly rated in the Pacific division in several areas. Some are guaranteed, while others reflect real problems facing every team in the department.

Overall goal share and power play production owes Edmonton. The overall division is so poor that we can’t give high marks for goaltending, just check out the overall save percentage that put the Oilers in second place in 2022-23.

The feeling fans might get from watching this season’s organization is déjà vu.

Married to Skinner goalkeeper McDavid’s dominance is key to Edmonton’s success. This formula has worked before, with McDavid and Kam Talbot making major runs in her 2017, and McDavid and Mike Smith making strong Final 4 runs in 2022. The McDavid-Skinner combination started pushing in December.

McDavid’s influence

The captain has career-best goals, assists and points. Based on his trajectory, he could score 70 goals and his 150+ points. His influence in each individual game is impressive, and his contribution to the Oilers’ win is higher than any player in memory.

Here are McDavid’s contributions by game state last season and this season:

The 5-5 contribution has attracted a lot of attention, with fans wondering why McDavid is performing so poorly in a season likely to set career highs in many categories. increase. Power His dominance in his two game states in his play and strength (except 5 vs 5) has grown from breathtaking to diabolical.

As an example, this season has been evenly strong: in just under 50 minutes, McDavid went 3-6-9. Last year, he scored 12 goals and 20 goals in about 120 minutes of even strength!

The power play is just as ridiculous. In just over 160 minutes, he recorded his 14-23-37.

Giving the Oilers an extra player in the McDavid era, or taking more than one player off the ice from each side, creates a lethal environment for opponents.

5-5 outscore

In November, when McDavid was on the ice without a dry sightle, the Oilers held 25% goal share (2-6) and just 8-11 (42%) when 29 played without 97. did.

With a goal share of 55% (6-5 goals) when they played together that month, McDavid’s solo numbers were particularly impressive. This goes against everything fans have seen since McDavid arrived in the fall of 2015 to flatten his NHL defense with his 5-for-5.

How was your December line? Centering lines 1-4 with an additional line describing McDavid-Draisaitl.

All numbers are 5 to 5

This is a well balanced group and one of the few we’ve seen in Edmonton in years. The top unit (McDavid with or without Draisaitl) might be expected to have more clearance, but goaltending was still unresolved in early December.

Puck IQ shows McDavid, Draisaitl and Nugent-Hopkins playing against most of the elite. The big news is that McDavid will be playing the best players less often (a slight change). Several factors can play a role, including the quality of the competition (the lack of top talent among your opponents).

One item worth mentioning: Nugent-Hopkins is playing the most effective 5-on-5 hockey of his career.

60 per December point

The Oilers are top heavy among forwards posting offense. Looking at the top scorers in the league, McDavid, Dry Saitle, Nugent his Hopkins and Hyman are in the top 25 this season.

Secondary scoring from the third and fourth lines is essential for a team to be competitive. There were some signs of recovery in December. Here are the numbers for all regular forwards:

All numbers are 5 to 5

December’s new star is Klim Kostin, who took someone’s job in real time until he got injured on New Year’s Eve against the Winnipeg Jets.

Based on recent performances (and injury news), a top 6 of McDavid, Draisaitl, Hyman, Kane, Nuge and Kostin is possible. This creates competition and pushes players for playing time. Kyler Yamamoto and Jesse Purjujärvi have scored more offense since Kostin’s arrival.

Competing for playtime on the skill line will be interesting to watch until the trade deadline.

defense

Edmonton’s coaching staff finally put together something that looked like a solution to the Blue Line problem in December. Looking at the goal difference, there is clear evidence that things are heading in the right direction.

All numbers are 5 to 5

The progress these numbers represent is well reflected in the coaching staff. The Oilers’ defense isn’t strong, but their results in December were impressive. A lot of that is due to goaltending, with the forwards backchecking more, but the defensives getting some credit for quality play.

Darnell Nurse in particular had a month to remember. He made several mistakes and eventually fell behind the net. By the end of the month, Nurse’s goal difference had improved and he was back in a confident game.

Part of Nurse and partner Cody Cesi’s problem is playing time and elite competition. Puck IQ bins the competition and finds the top pairings spending an inordinate amount of time against the league’s best (figures below for the entire season).

All numbers are 5 to 5

It’s clear that the top pairing is given the toughest time slots, and the difference makes for a clear elite-to-elite match, while the second pairing (Barry in particular) gets more hits during December. I took a load (about 20 minutes or more).

The ultimate solution is a deal acquisition on time. The coaching staff should be given credit for sticking with Nurse-Ceci and finding a wrinkle to help fix it during December.

goaltending

Of all the things Woodcroft coordinated in December, promoting Skinner to the No. 1 job had the biggest impact.

Skinner’s 5-for-5 save percentage (.930) in December surpassed Jack Campbell’s (.901) for the month.

Over the entire 5-5 season, Skinner has a .932 save percentage. This placed him sixth among qualifying goalkeepers. Campbell’s save percentage (.890) ranks 51st out of his 53 qualifying goaltenders for 2022-23.

The nature of goaltending indicates regression is coming, and Campbell will help this team win games this season.

Choosing Skinner to start most of December’s games and using him heavily was essential to the Oilers’ success in a pivotal month.

special team

Power play has always been a big part of the Oilers’ arsenal, but much of the advantage is returned through poor penalty kills. is it improving?

Numbers don’t lie. Edmonton’s special team contributed to all of December’s successes.

last month

There are difficult opponents and easy mark combinations, and more games with fewer lights ahead of Edmonton.

Evander Cain could return in the coming weeks, general manager Ken Holland is definitely looking for help on the blue line (and penalties-killing centers don’t do well), plus contributions from Campbell. be a bonus.

After the halfway point of the season, the Netherlands will have to decide on a rookie. Skinner is key to staying in Edmonton, and Marcus Niimelainen seems to have turned the corner.

Philip Broberg needs to play, but organizations need to balance audition time and winning games. He played well in the game against Winnipeg, but he played sparingly.

Dylan Holloway could also be in action for Bakersfield in the coming months. The young forward needs to play more than he was dispatched to Edmonton this season.

The prevailing wisdom is that the Oilers aren’t in real danger of missing the playoffs, but that’s been a theme since the end of October and no clearance.

A long winning streak has yet to emerge. January can tell us a lot about this most unsettling Oilers winter.

(Photo: Steph Chambers/Getty Images)